Malaysia

Less than 4 hours drive north of Singapore, the Sepang International circuit offers a very different style of event from that of two weeks ago. From the heart of a thriving city enjoying its pleasures after dark, to a purpose built race circuit some distance away from Kuala Lumpur, this is a ‘conventional’ race weekend, yet with equally demanding temperatures and humidity. It has been a very succesful playground for Sebastian Vettel in recent years, his win last season allowing him to stand alone as a four time winner here. That victory in early 2015 was his first since joining Ferrari and their first in just under two years; it was a seminal moment but one which sadly has not been built upon this year. Having failed to win a single race in 2016, he may need the customary tropical storms to give him a helping hand. 


Pirelli have brought tyres from the harder end of the spectrum to Malaysia, and the last time we saw this mix in action was at Silverstone where qualifying gave Mercedes an advantage of a full second. Assuming for now that it does stay dry, Mercedes are perfectly placed to wrap up a 3rd straight Constructor’s title but the track has been resurfaced since the cars were last here, and that could upset some of the precise calculations of tyre wear and degradation. Rosberg has never won this race, but then we’ve been saying that since the end of the summer break and he keeps winning at tracks that in the past have eluded him. He rattled through four wins in a row at the start of the season and he has a chance of becoming only the third driver in history to repeat that sequence in a single year. Hamilton has won here, once in 2014, and you have to go back to 2010 for the last time a team mate of his was faster in qualifying, but Singapore threw up a few question marks that he will be keen to dispel. 


Over at Red Bull, there should be some optimism for a decent result on a circuit where they have won three times in six years, but once again they are probably praying for a well-timed rain shower to achieve the target of outright race victory. Last year was actually a bit dismal for them; having made the most of a wet qualifying, both cars finished behind the Toro Rossos in a dry race. Ricciardo drove superbly in Singapore and is right at the top of his game whereas Verstappen has suffered some car gremlins at the start of races, and will be aiming to rediscover some of his mid season momentum. 


As for the rest, the habitual contest between Force India and Williams should once again be finely balanced, Toro Rosso will be quick in the middle sector but will miss out on the straights, and McLaren will be celebrating Jenson’s 300th race at the track he scored his first ever podium back in 2004. If those rain showers do arrive at an opportune moment, perhaps he’ll be the one to spring a Sepang surprise.