Japan

It's impossible to look ahead to the Japanese Grand Prix without casting a backward glance to the extraordinary happenings in Malaysia. From seeing a championship lead of eight points apparently disappear as he was clouted into a spin at Turn 1, Nico Rosberg could have been 17 points in arrears if his car had been badly damaged and Hamilton had gone on to win. Instead the German has a 23 point lead with five races to go and a sequence of races that has been mostly good for him in the past. Accepted, he hasn't won in Japan despite outqualifying Lewis in each of the past two years, and his error in Austin last year led to his final hopes of 2015 championship success disappearing. But he did have a great sequence of victories after that, and he has won in both Mexico and Brazil, two races that are yet to be conquered by Hamilton.  


So, how will things develop at Suzuka? Based on the past and on the events of last weekend, Red Bull must go into the event with a feeling of optimism. This circuit has seen spectacular success for them over the years with four wins between 2009 and 2013. Their superb chassis will be in its element on the demanding curves that climb behind the pits, snaking their way through Dunlop and Degner and searing through Spoon. The Mercedes is still the greater all round package, but with inclement weather forecast in Japan, there may also be options for clever tactics in the race, as we saw in Sepang when Red Bull were able to split their strategies between cars and make a pincer movement on Hamilton that may have had some effect on forcing him to push his engine harder than he would have liked. 


The highlight of the Malaysia GP for me was the sight of Ricciardo and Verstappen running side by side through almost three corners, racing hard yet fairly, and then being able to congratulate each other afterwards. It was refreshing and exciting, a situation which had developed due to differing strategies and it renewed my faith that Formula 1 can provide some real wheel to wheel racing that doesn't have to end in tears. Verstappen's mature reaction to being beaten to the win by his team mate despite having been the one most likely to be first Red Bull home for much of the weekend was also a sign that he is taking on every lesson this year. If the team really does produce a car that can challenge for wins throughout next season, we are in for a real treat.


But back to this coming weekend and a riot of passionate support from partisan Japanese fans on a track with few compromises. Ferrari do not have a great record here in recent years, despite holding the joint highest number of wins outright. The last time a Ferrari qualified in the top 3 at Suzuka was in 2006, and in 27 editions only four races have been won from outside the front row. Perhaps the weather will allow Vettel to demonstrate those brilliant skills which led to his first ever victory at Monza in 2008, but on the other hand the way his season is self destructing, perhaps it's going to be more like Fuji 2007 when he crashed into Mark Webber during a Safety Car period. It is hard to find any silver linings on the Ferrari cloud right now. 


Back in the pack, McLaren will want to give their Honda partners something to get excited about, and last year Alonso finished just outside the points despite his 'GP2' engine. Having finished 7th in four of the last six races, perhaps this weekend will provide an opportunity for something a little more special from both him and Jenson, at what is a favourite track for both of them. If last weekend was anything to go by, we should be in for a cracker at Suzuka. 
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