Hamilton has a brilliant record in the States, matching Senna and Schumacher for five wins and easily capable of extending that to six this weekend. He is driving superbly well, we have seen no evidence of any dips in motivation and that fourth title is almost within grasp. He seems to relish the Circuit of the Americas, having won the last three in a row, plus the first one here in 2012 when he took on and passed Vettel in a straight fight. The car may be a Diva, according to Toto Wolff but Lewis seems to know how to coax the best out of her. Meanwhile at Ferrari, Vettel’s car (which he named Gina at the start of the year...) is quick in almost all conditions and the team should be more competitive here than in recent years. Seb himself has had more poles than Lewis here, and has taken fastest lap at every race bar one.
Red Bull will also be in the hunt, with a solid record of podium finishes in the past, and a car that is clearly a match for either of the top two in race conditions. Verstappen is on a roll after that win in Malaysia and a fighting 2nd in Japan, and as long as he’s learnt from the mistake of coming into the pits in Austin when the team wasn’t expecting him, he should be a contender once again.
Meanwhile, in the heart of the pack there’s plenty to watch out for. At Toro Rosso, the Torpedo is back, as Daniil Kvyat is granted another opportunity to prove what he can do. He had one of his best ever performances here in the early stages of the damp 2015 race when he was fighting for the lead with Hamilton; sadly he speared into the barrier at the penultimate corner much later in the race, and it’s those kinds of errors that have kept him from fulfilling his potential. Joining him for what could be a one-off race or perhaps the precursor to more is New Zealand’s Brendon Hartley. At one time in his career he was understudy to Vettel as Sebastian started winning regularly for Red Bull, but Brendon’s single seater results at the time simply weren’t good enough for him to earn promotion. Having rebuilt his career and confidence with Porsche, he won the World Endurance Championship alongside Mark Webber in 2015, he’s on target to do it again this year and he won Le Mans in June. Although it is 33 years since a Kiwi was in a Formula 1 race, the first ever US GP was won by another; Bruce McLaren.
Toro Rosso have been put in the unusual situation of completely changing their driver line up from Japan partly as a result of Carlos Sainz moving early to Renault, and that’s going to be another focus of attention this weekend. For all the talk about time to settle in, this is F1 and you are judged from the moment you jump in the car, before even leaving the pit lane. Sainz will want to start his career with the team strongly, and he has every chance; he was an excellent 6th last year with Toro Rosso, at the time matching his best career result, and he was 7th the year before in the wet race. Sainz vs Hulkenberg is going to be one of the stories of the next 18 months and it starts right here in Austin.
So while Hamilton and Vettel’s orbits have separated after the Asian escapades, the ripples of change throughout the grid are like gravitational waves created by colliding astronomical bodies and the outcomes will begin to evolve here in the Lone Star State.