Abu Dhabi

The final title-deciding round of the F1 championship is upon us and a nail-biting weekend awaits. The culmination of a see-saw battle between the two Mercedes team mates will take place as the sun sets on the 21st and final event of the year; the night sky will be illuminated by thousands of LEDs covering the hotel that spans the track and by fireworks celebrating a winner at the end of it all. But which of the team mates will emerge triumphant?


Rosberg is the leader in the points and a top three finish will suffice, no matter what Hamilton does. Nico needs to keep calm and carry on doing what he has done for the last three races; shadow Hamilton’s every move, qualify ahead of the opposing Ferraris and Red Bulls, stay out of trouble and rack up the points. It is easier said than done; he was close to being taken out twice by Verstappen in Mexico through the normal give and take of racing and his half spin in the rain of Brazil would have had massive consequences if it had gone any further. It reminded me of that crucial moment in 2010 when Mark Webber lost control of his car, and of the World Championship lead, in the rain of South Korea. On that occasion, the car slewed across the track and was collected, ironically by Rosberg, putting both out of the race immediately. Two races later the championship decider took place in Abu Dhabi, and Mark was never quite in a position to recover from that loss.


The man who did win that famous curtain call of 2010 was Sebastian Vettel, the tenth time that a driver who hadn’t been leading the points going into the final race came through to claim the crown. He turned around a deficit of 15 points, so there’s hope on the horizon for Hamilton, even if he does need a little bit of luck to go his way. Beaten in qualifying by Rosberg in each of the previous years as team mates in Abu Dhabi, he will be fired up to deliver his very best on Saturday to give him a position of control for Sunday. And then it gets interesting; surely the only way he can influence the outcome, despite what he has said in the press conference, is to get in front and then slow the pack, hoping that a Verstappen or a Vettel will be determined to end the season on a high note, and cause confusion for Rosberg who will be much happier with a lonely race. Gamesmanship has a place in every sport, as long as it’s within the rules. Too often we have seen championships won through race-ending contact, and that would be deeply disappointing after what has generally been a pretty clean season, Barcelona and Austria notwithstanding. 


In many ways, this title race feels remarkably similar to that between Niki Lauda and Alain Prost in 1984, another year that saw an astonishing performance by a youngster in the wet, in this case Senna at Monaco. Prost was generally the faster of the McLaren pair, and tended to win the wheel to wheel encounters. But Lauda stuck to his task, benefited from some good fortune and won the championship by half a point. Mind you, he qualified down in 11th for the final race and only snatched the vital 2nd place he needed when Nigel Mansell suffered brake failure with 18 laps to go. The omens are good for a fantastic season finale. 
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