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‘Are you here for the Formula 1?’ asked the clerk at the hire car desk as I handed over my licence on arrival into Milan’s Linate airport. He said it with a certain glee, so while confirming his suspicion, I inquired as to whether he enjoyed F1.
‘ Yes, I like Formula One; anything with an engine. Football, no. I hate football’ he glowered, ‘rugby is OK. But any sport with a motor, that’s what I like.’ As he tapped away on the computer keyboard I noticed his name badge said Stefano, and it made me think of Stefano Domenicali who came so close to leading Ferrari to championship success in both 2010 and 2012. Indeed in 2012, Ferrari’s man Fernando Alonso left Monza leading the championship with a 39 point margin over the driver who would ultimately win that year’s title, Sebastian Vettel. ‘So will Ferrari win this weekend?’ I asked. ‘ I’m not so sure,’ he said slowly, looking at me directly. ‘Mercedes is very strong, no? But what is good is the fight, one and then the other. That is what I like. I hope….but I do not know.’ And that in many ways is the story of the season. Nobody really knows which of the two teams will be the strongest at any particular circuit, or even on any particular day. Spa was a reminder of that, with Vettel pushing Hamilton throughout the race on a circuit that we thought would probably favour the Silver Arrows, but which proved incredibly close. Without that late Safety Car or without Hamilton’s instinctive racecraft, it could well have been a Ferrari victory and there was so little to choose between them. This weekend we come to Ferrari’s geographical territory but Mercedes’ competitive stomping ground in recent years; Toto Wolff’s team is aiming to become the first ever constructor in over 80 years of racing at Monza to win here four times in a row. They have a magnificent power unit combined with a relatively low drag chassis that should be a winning combo once again. But nothing is simple in this year’s championship. The Ferrari is an incredibly responsive yet stable car, shorter in wheelbase which should help with direction change through the chicanes, and superb on the brakes; even Toto admitted to that on our C4 programme last week. And being that this is their home race, one can only imagine the effort that will have gone into extracting everything possible out of what will be a pretty unique low-downforce aerodynamic package. Keep your eyes peeled for wafer-thin rear wings, much like Ricciardo and Red Bull experimented with in Belgium. I’m sure that in the bowels of Ferrari’s factory in Maranello, there must be a group of engineers whose sole task is to make the car fast at Monza… As for the drivers themselves, both key contenders adore racing here. Hamilton has as many pole positions (five) as anyone and his three wins have all come in the last five years. Vettel has also won here three times, including his remarkable first ever win at the wheel of a Toro Rosso in the pouring rain. They traded victories here between 2011 and 2015, and only Rosberg has snatched a victory from them in the six years since that sequence began. The history, the sense of interacting with the greats of Grand Prix racing is more powerful here than at any other circuit on the calendar, and both are striving to put their names at the very top of the list. This weekend promises to be another monumental showdown, and for the Tifosi, the army of Ferrari fans who live and breath every turn of a red car’s wheel, the sheer possibility of success should be enough to whip them up into an even more heightened fervour. The opportunity to see a Ferrari win at home for the first time in 7 years will draw them in from all over Italy, and I can only hope that the majority of them are as even-minded as the rental car clerk, and prepared to ride the wave of unpredictability in this season’s fascinating duel.
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For some race fans that I know, the answer may be very short and begin with an ’n’ . Kimi Raikkonen’s last victory in F1 came at the Australian Grand Prix of 2013 when he was driving for the Lotus team, the Enstone based oufit that has morphed back into Renault F1 in recent times. That victory was three and a half years ago, and despite being with Ferrari since the start of 2014, he has been unable to add to his winning tally of 20, a number he shares with fellow Finn Mika Hakkinen. Arguably the closest he has come was at Monaco this year when he earned a genuine pole position and led the first part of the race until Ferrari called him in before Vettel, and as a result he lost his advantage. Similarly in Hungary last time out, he had the pace to pull away from Vettel but was never given the opportunity; it was all about giving the driver with the best chance in the title race every possible benefit.
As we go into the furiously busy last three months of the season, that objective will not change unless Vettel drops so far out of the reckoning that Kimi can no longer help. By announcing a year’s extension to Raikkonen’s contract, Ferrari have both rewarded his efforts to date and given him cause to carry on doing much the same in the future. His task for the remainder of this year will be to assist Vettel whenever he can, and to thwart Mercedes at every turn. Some would argue that he hasn’t done that effectively; after all, Bottas is well ahead of him in the points and has generally done a better job by comparison. Perversely however, the success that Bottas has enjoyed has given Mercedes a bit of a headache. Valtteri is still in with a shout at the title, and Mercedes pride themselves in allowing their drivers to race each other. Remember how we departed from Hungary, with Lewis Hamilton wondering if he had done the correct thing in allowing Bottas back into third place? Life is not as simple in that garage. Of course, who’s to say that Vettel will always be in a position to be helped? Here at Spa, the first corner is notorious for incident and last year the two Ferraris ended up hitting each other as a result of a racy move by Max Verstappen. Back in 2012 we saw an almighty shambles when Romain Grosjean flew over the top of Fernando Alonso and earned himself a race ban for Monza. At some point it is likely that Vettel will either drop out of a race or be taken out, and that will release Kimi from his obligations. Nobody on the current grid has won as many F1 races at Spa as Raikkonen. He is third on the all time list behind only Schumacher and Senna and his last ever win at the wheel of a Ferrari was here in 2009. Last year he ouqualified Vettel by a couple of tenths, and he displayed similar superiority on the high speed sweeps of Silverstone just a few weeks ago. He can still deliver. But to win here at Spa in anything other than a Mercedes is surely asking a huge amount. The Silver Arrows have been the dominant cars in Belgium since the current engine formula began in 2014, even if they did hand a win to Red Bull that year. Hamilton started at the back with engine penalties last season yet finished 3rd and and he will be looking to produce a Canada or Silverstone style performance this weekend to re-energise his championship hopes. It’s not a foregone conclusion, because Pirelli have brought their softest tyres and while Hamilton did use them to great effect in Montreal there have been other events where Ferrari have been able to run longer stints on the more pliable rubber. Add the fact that rain is forecast for Sunday, and this becomes a much harder race to predict. Kimi for the win? Stranger things have happened…. 1. Over the last two and a half years of the most recent McLaren-Honda partnership, the Hungaroring has seen some of the best results achieved by the team. Fernando was 5th here in 2015 with Jenson Button also making it into the top ten for a rare double points finish, while last year Alonso was 7th and perhaps more significantly qualified 7th despite dropping it in the final part of the damp qualifying session; in fact he was 7th in every session. The first half of the team’s 2017 campaign has been pretty woeful but let’s not forget that Alonso was 7th on the grid in Spain, and Jenson’s sole appearance at Monaco saw him qualify 9th on the only other high downforce, relatively slow track so far. Engine penalties have already been taken in order to put them in a stronger position here and sheer horsepower is not much of a factor on this layout. It is true to say that best of the rest behind Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull means 7th, but lots can happen around this tricky circuit in the high heat of summer.
2. Fernando celebrates his 36th birthday on Saturday, just in time for qualifying. He is the third oldest driver on the current grid behind Raikkonen (38yo in October) and Massa (who turned 36 in April), yet is convinced he is driving better than ever. The way he adapted and performed at Indianapolis as well as grabbing the opportunity to set the pace in the first part of qualifying at Silverstone demonstrate that he has lost none of his nerve and sheer commitment to being the best, and he still commands huge respect within the paddock. Highly rated new team mate Stoffel Vandoorne has only beaten him once in qualifying this year. Age is no barrier to the truly great; Fangio was 46yo when he won his fifth and final world championship. 3. This has been a notable event for the Spaniard. Yes, he retired in his first ever race here for Minardi in 2001, but when he returned in 2003 at Renault after a season as test driver, he became the youngest ever winner of a Grand Prix at this very venue. He had recently turned 22yo, it was the 30th GP of his career and he won by over 16 seconds. Since then his record for being youngest winner has been taken by both Vettel and Verstappen, and he hasn’t added any more victories in Hungary, but he led in both 2006 and 2009 before suffering misfortune with wheel nuts, and he also led here in 2014 for Ferrari before Daniel Ricciardo zapped him at the end. 4. This is the last race before the summer break, and for all of Fernando’s talk about deciding nothing regarding his future until October, there is no denying that this is a key time to impress. It seems as though all other F1 avenues are closed to him, and that staying at McLaren is his only chance of being in a high profile seat, but who knows? Key decisions will be made over the next few weeks, decisions that not only determine driver line-ups for 2018 but potentially for the next few seasons and Alonso will want to keep his name in the frame. For a man who has been in a relatively uncompetitive car, he has done that with aplomb this year and Hungary offers one more chance to underline his talent. 5. Of course, listing Alonso as a man to watch this weekend means I have put the commentator’s curse on him, and he’ll probably get taken out on the first lap, as he was in Austria…So, who will win the Hungarian Grand Prix? It could be a close run thing, and if Ferrari want to pove they can take the fight all the way to Abu Dhabi, this is a big weekend for them. High temperatures are forecast for Sunday and that could benefit the Italian team with regard to tyre behaviour, despite what happened at Silverstone, but Hamilton has a brilliant record on this 2.7 mile track and is on a roll after the highs of his home race. Stealth campaigner Valtteri Bottas has yet to score a podium in Hungary when driving for Williams but as we saw in Austria and Sochi, he cannot be ignored. Meanwhile Red Bull will be looking to this weekend as a real opportunity to mix it with the two dominant teams; Daniel Ricciardo won in style three years ago and Max Verstappen is due some luck. Potentially we could have six cars fighting over the first few places on the grid and a game of cat and mouse on a track where overtaking is tricky. Throw Alonso into the mix with one of his exceptional first laps, and we could be seeing far more of him than expected. The number five has plenty of significance this weekend at Silverstone. For a start, my Channel 4 colleague Karun Chandhok is going to be driving Nigel Mansell’s title winning Williams from 1992 on a couple of demo laps, carrying the red 5 proudly in this 40th year of Williams in F1. Meanwhile, at the sharp end of the field Lewis Hamilton will be looking for win number five at the British Grand Prix, a feat that has only been achieved by one other British driver, Jim Clark. Hamilton has made Silverstone his own playground for the duration of the V6 turbo hybrid era which began in 2014, winning from 6th on the grid that first year after missing out in tricky conditions in qualifying, and then winning from pole for the last two years. His first win here in 2008 when at McLaren was also one of his most impressive, as he took victory by over a minute in the wet. He loves racing in front of his home crowd, but he also loves the very nature of Silverstone with its fast, flowing corners that demand total commitment where more than almost any other circuit on the calendar, drivers get a real buzz out of the sheer speed and the G forces that are generated here. Flat out through Copse this year? Sergio Perez reckons some drivers will achieve that at some point this weekend.
The 2017 cars with their extra grip and downforce are a perfect match for the layout and I can’t wait to see them at full tilt through both Copse and the Maggots/Becketts complex. I’d love to see a graphic on screen that gave us a sector time for just that one part of the track, so that we could really determine which chassis is working best through there. Looking at the pogress that has been made by Red Bull in recent events, I wouldn’t be surprised if Daniel Ricciardo or Max Verstappen were among the quickest in that section. Ricciardo is coming off the back of five successive podiums while Max is at the other end of the 5 spectrum with that figure as his total number of non finishes this year, but both of them will be feeling pumped by the race pace in Austria, where Ricciardo was able to fend off Hamilton; we heard his roar of delight as the significance of that sank in during the slow down lap. Carrying number 5 in current F1 is of course Hamilton’s great rival Sebastian Vettel. He arrives with a 20 point lead but hasn’t won a race since Monaco. His record here is not quite up there with Lewis; just the one victory in 2009 when he was at Red Bull, although there was a strong 3rd place for Ferrari in 2015. Spain this year saw a tremendous duel between the two of them, and there’s every reason to expect the Ferrari to be just as competitive on a track where efficient downforce is the key. Mind you, he’ll need to keep an eye on the other side of the garage as Kimi enjoyed a string of five podiums here in the mid noughties, culminating in victory in 2007 and he outqualified Seb last year. Fernando Alonso is another former winner here; in fact he has finished either first or second on five occasions, but bearing in mind the lack of power from Honda and that he’s suffered five retirements this year, his chances of success some five years since he was last on pole here are remote. A battle between Ferrari and Mercedes seems the most likely scenario once again and the Silver Arrows have already won five races this year, shared between their two drivers. They have also won the British GP five times, counting back to Sir Stirling Moss’s victory at Aintree in 1955. This is no short circuit, in fact it’s the third longest on the calendar, but Number 5 is Alive (and well) on the sweeps and turns of Silverstone. For all the drama of Baku and endless subsequent analysis, it’s time now to move on to the picturesque Red Bull Ring in Austria for the latest in what is becoming an intensely fiery battle up front between Vettel and Hamilton. But who carries the momentum at this stage of the season as we approach the halfway point in a week’s time at Silverstone? In my opinion it has to be Hamilton, despite the fact that he lost a further two points to Vettel last time out and missed out on a certain victory due to the bizarre problem with his headrest.
Vettel’s swerve at Hamilton in Azerbaijan was matched by his belligerence in not owning up at the time, but the subsequent worldwide attention and requirement to appear at the FIA in Paris to talk it through all detract from the intensity of focus that he should be applying to the task in hand. Beating Hamilton to the title will take every ounce of commitment both from him as a driver and from the team to continue updating and improving the car, and although he escaped without further censure, he still had to waste valuable energy on clearing up the mess he caused. Nine points on his racing licence and even more scrutiny from the FIA for the forseeable future mean he’s somewhat on the back foot going into a race in which he has so far failed to achieve a podium result. On top of that, Hamilton is coming off the back of two superb qualifying performances in both Canada and Baku which demonstrated that both he and the Mercedes team have solved some of the problems they had earlier in the year with regard to making the tyres work effectively. Remember Sochi and Monaco where Lewis struggled to bring the tyres in and where on both occasions he failed to qualify in the top three? Well, in Canada he was on the same Ultra Soft tyres that he used in those races, and which appear here in Austria, and his pole lap was sensational. Then in Baku, when on the slightly harder tyre, he managed to make it work despite having just the one tour to build temperatures and once again nailed the lap. This is the same man who has taken pole position here at Zeltweg for the last two years, and who fought back to win the race on the final lap last year. Vettel didn’t even get to the final lap here in 2016; he pushed his Ultra Soft tyres to a longer stint than Mercedes but they gave up in spectacular fashion on Lap 26, sending him to the barrier on the approach to Turn 1, so fourth place in 2015 remains his best result in Austria. This is the country that gave rise to two of his greatest supporters; Dietrich Mateschitz and Helmut Marko. Thanks to them he was racing a Formula BMW car here in 2003 at the age of 16 with Red Bull sponsorship, and without them he would never have taken four F1 titles with Red Bull Racing. Whether he can take inspiration at one of his racing spiritual homes and interrupt Hamilton’s momentum is, however, another matter. Lewis is on a roll, he has his home Grand Prix in a few days time where his supporters gain him a tenth or two, and a points lead of just 14 is not much of a buffer for Vettel going into these next two weekends. The fastest street track on the current F1 calendar returns this weekend for a second outing, and after a relatively quiet debut race which followed in the footsteps of a manic GP2 encounter on the same day, it is still a little early to make a definitive verdict on the success or otherwise of the layout.
There’s no question that it’s fast; last year’s pole position lap by Nico Rosberg was set at an average speed of 130mph, a similar average to Barcelona and well up on the other two pure street tracks Singapore at 110mph and Monaco at just over 100mph, while the Williams team recorded Bottas at over 230mph at the end of the 1.3 mile flat out section from Turn 16 to the first corner. That is a pretty daunting figure on what is a normal section of road that usually carries busy traffic alongside the Caspian Sea coastline, and which when closed for race weekend causes all sorts of confused detours and coaches going down one way streets in the wrong direction. At the opposite end of the track, F1 cars climb past a mediaeval wall that surrounds the Palace of the Shirvanshas through an area that is only wide enough for a single car at a time, and which has masses of potential for chaos in the race. That’s quickly followed by a daunting downhill left hander, Turn 15, where Sergio Perez crashed in practice last year and Rosberg got away with scraping the wall in qualifying. It has a split personality, from the ninety degree corners on a level surface in the early part of the lap to the twisting, climbing, narrow section further along. In some ways, the track harks back to an era when long sections of road were closed off to create classic racing venues; places like Reims in France and Pescara in Italy, both appearing in the 1920s. The latter was fully 16 miles long with two straights of 4 miles each and then a tortuous twisty section that went on for 8 miles between the villages of Pescara and Capelle, and all within sight of the Adriatic coast. Impossible to manage in our modern health and safety era, of course, but an indelible part of the history of the sport. Funnily enough, Enzo Ferrari drove to the first ever Pescara race victory back in 1924 by beating two Mercedes, and 93 years later the team he created would love a similar result in Azerbaijan after being soundly thrashed by a Silver Arrow in Canada. Part of that was down to the start of the race, as contact with Verstappen at Turn One put Vettel on the back foot for the rest of the afternoon and allowed Hamilton to sail into the distance. Lewis was in absolutely stupendous form in Canada, but he returns to Baku knowing that this was one that slipped away last year, and ultimately contributed to Rosberg being crowned champion. Fastest in practice, Hamilton couldn’t get the same feel with the car in qualifying and ultimately clouted the barrier in his attempts to match Nico. A similar lack of confidence in the car occurred in Monaco this year and to a certain extent on the semi-street circuit layout of Sochi, so there could be some concerns but Mercedes are on the case, attempting to make the car less sensitive to temperature changes and tyre requirements. The elements are all in place for a tantalising race; the top two in the championship fighting tooth and nail, a layout that could favour either team depending on how well they make use of the tyres, and a track which is yet to prove itself as a modern classic, but which has plenty of idiosyncracies to keep us entertained. Fast and furious or plain and processional? There’ll be more evidence come Sunday night. Right now we are enjoying a battle royal between two great champions of Formula One. Sebastian Vettel leads the points having taken three wins to Hamilton's two, but Hamilton has been the better qualifier, leading 3-1 in pole positions. This weekend we come to a circuit that has a history of success for the British driver and one of frequent disappointment for the German. How can we read the runes of past performance in Canada?
Hamilton's relationship with the parkland circuit in Montreal began on a high with his very first visit, as it saw him take his first ever Grand Prix win in only his 6th Formula One event, despite going wheel to wheel with McLaren team mate Alonso and dealing with as many as four safety car periods in an incident filled encounter. Since then he has added four more wins, including the last two in a row, and another victory this weekend would make him a six times winner of a particular race, something only Senna and Schumacher have achieved in the past. By contrast, Vettel has often been tantalisingly close to victory, only for it to slip away. Take last year as an example; a superb start from 3rd on the grid saw him squeeze between the Mercedes and set off in the lead. His qualifying time had been within two tenths of a second of Hamilton's and in the race he looked in control, but an early commitment to a two stop race allowed Mercedes to go for the alternative, stopping just once and regaining track position. Afterwards Vettel felt that even the kids in the grandstand could see how Ferrari had lost the advantage and second place was scant reward. The previous year had seen him fast in practice, and Raikkonen took third on the grid but Seb was left on the sidelines early in qualifying with a power unit failure, and a fightback to 5th was the best he could deliver. In 2014 when he was in his final year at Red Bull, a golden opportunity appeared out of nowhere as both Mercedes suffered energy recovery problems. Suddenly there was a chance of glory in a season of woe but through pit stops and traffic the three place advantage he had enjoyed over his team mate Daniel Ricciardo on the grid was overturned and it was Daniel who went on to win his first ever Grand Prix. Granted, in 2013 came the exception to prove the rule; Vettel won the race from pole position in dominant fashion, but in 2012 he was defeated by Hamilton despite setting the pace in qualifying, and in 2011 came probably the biggest blow of all. That race will always be remembered for Jenson Button's remarkable victory having dropped to last place at one stage, but the driver he beat that day, and who had led every lap of a marathon four hour long encounter until halfway through the final tour, was one Sebastian Vettel. A slight over commitment at Turn 5 to avoid falling within DRS range saw him slithering wide and Jenson was through. He even missed out in 2010 when Hamilton ended Red Bull's 100% pole sequence to that point and despite Seb starting second, in the race he dropped to 4th. There wasn't a race here in 2009 (perhaps a relief...) but in 2008 he hit the barrier sufficiently hard in final practice that he missed qualifying altogether in his Toro Rosso. A recovery to score the final point that day was some consolation. So it has not been a circuit of wonderful memories for the title leader, and yet quite the opposite for his hunter. Hamilton knows he needs to bounce back from the disappointment of Monaco as fast and as effectively as possible, and this could be the ideal place to do just that. His ability to brake incredibly late, yet maintain control and balance into a corner is rewarded several times around the 2.7 mile lap and you can imagine there will be an extra bounce in his step coming to an event which has gone his way so many times. Will Vettel overcome his jinx or will Hamilton extend his winning record in Canada? It will all play out on an island in the St Lawrence Seaway this weekend. The Monaco Grand Prix is all about peaks and troughs, from the utter delight of winning the most prestigious race on the calendar to the depths of depression when it all slips away. Just consider the last two seasons of its 75 year history; Ricciardo’s pole position and seemingly safe win twelve months ago destroyed by a late call on which type of slicks to use for the remainder of the race, only for those slicks to be hidden away in the back of the Red Bull garage. Or Hamilton’s certain victory in 2015 wiped out by a late dash to the pit lane under Safety Car which allowed both Rosberg and Vettel to pass. Everything is on a knife edge in Monaco, from drivers teetering on the limit of adhesion next to Armco barriers, to the pressure in the cramped pit lane for mechanics, and even the make-or-break commercial deals that can be sealed on the deck of a multi million pound yacht. There is nothing quite like Monaco and it holds a very special place on the F1 calendar.
Mind you, some folk would also accuse it of being dull; a track on which it is almost impossible to overtake, where’s the fun in that? The fun is in seeing who balances on that edge and who falls off. Who makes a miniscule mistake that wipes out a weekend’s work, who has the courage and committment to brush the barriers in qualifying and then stay within those walls in the race. The tales of woe here are endless: Alberto Ascari crashing into the harbour while leading in 1955; the fatal accident of Lorenzo Bandini when hustling his Ferrari in 1967; Jack Brabham spinning out of the lead on the final corner in 1970; Jim Clark suffering mechanical problems on various occasions denying him a single victory despite being on pole position four times; Damon Hill missing out on backing up his father’s five wins when his engine let go in 1996. Ricciardo’s misery last year and Hamilton’s the year before were not isolated incidents on these unforgiving streets. Positive stories also emerge, however, and sometimes from the most unlikely sources. Two French drivers, virtually on home soil, enjoyed their only ever Grand Prix victories here in wet conditions. Jean-Pierre Beltoise mastered horrendous weather in 1972 in his BRM while Olivier Panis stunned everyone by winning in a Ligier in 1996 and so unexpected was his success, he had to borrow a suit for the presentation dinner that evening. Stirling Moss famously fended off both Ferraris in a slower Lotus in 1961 but Ferrari had enjoyed their own surprise win in 1955 when both Mercedes broke down, Ascari disappeared beneath the waves as we have already established, and Maurice Trintignant, then a 37yo journeyman racer who had never won before, took the first of his two wins in the Principality. However, it’s a long time since Ferrari last won around here. 2001 to be precise, a 16 year gap which funnily enough is the same gap they had between wins in 1981 (Gilles Villeneuve) and 1997 (Michael Schumacher). Sebastian Vettel reckons they will be in the fight for pole position this year and if so, there’s every chance of that elusive victory. But Mercedes have won the last four in a row on these streets and this is a racer’s circuit, a chancer’s playground where Hamilton not only feels at home - he IS at home. The latest instalment of Vettel vs Hamilton will be the primary focus this weekend as the top two in the points duke it out on one of the most lapped circuits in F1 history. But there are many other scenarios lurking beneath the headlines, and several drivers to keep an eye on. Fernando Alonso. With all the stories building up to his Indy 500 encounter in a couple of weeks time, it’s hard to ignore Alonso, and he’s doing his best to make sure he’s always being talked about. This weekend he races at his home circuit, the track where he last won a Grand Prix all the way back in 2013. Since that day, Lewis Hamilton has won 33 GP which is one more than Alonso has won in his entire career. This weekend will also mark his 50th start since he last stood on the podium, and his 75th since that victory here. So far this season, he has failed to see the chequered flag in any of the four races and he didn’t even make the start in Russia. But he is still worth watching here; last season he put the McLaren-Honda combination into Q3 for the first time and although the Honda is lacking in power, the chassis makes a much bigger contribution on the Barcelona circuit. Reliability is still a bugbear, and there may be grid penalties for engine parts, but Fernando can be relied upon to deliver something special here in Spain. Carlos Sainz. The other Spaniard in the mix, and like Fernando he seems to relish the home support rather than be intimidated by it. His best ever F1 qualifying performance was here in 2015 when he put the car 5th on the grid, outqualifying his then team mate Max Verstappen, while his best race result was also delivered here in 2016 when he finished 6th, a result he went on to repeat in both Austin and Brazil. He’s had a pretty solid start to the season, highlighted by the choice to start on slicks in the wet in China against the wishes of his team, and Shanghai delivered his best result so far in 7th. He blotted his copy book by running into Stroll in Bahrain, but the Williams is a quick car, and there must have been a sense of urgency to pass it promptly when he came out of the pits; sadly his timing was out. That put him three places further back on the grid in Russia and yet he was still able to score the final point. This year’s Toro Rosso is a sound car, and it should show well on the Barcelona layout. He will be targeting a top 10 start, achieved only once so far this year, and another helping of points to keep Toro Rosso ahead of Haas. Valtteri Bottas. He came of age as a Grand Prix driver in Russia and he has been able to go home and build up to the start of the European season with a sense of a job well done. For all fans of the sport, he couldn’t really have timed it any better, as he is now a serious contender and has proved that, like Rosberg, he can take Lewis on and beat him when it all clicks into place on his side of the garage. There will be a sense of relief and of belief that it can be done again. But will it be Mercedes or Ferrari that set the pace this weekend? The Silver Arrows have qualified 1-2 here for the past 4 years and that sequence began before the introduction of the hybrid V6 engines; their car should have good stability in the fast corners and in recent years they have been mighty in the twisty final sector. But the Ferrari is good on tyres, and the combination of surface and layout do present a harsh proving ground. Add in the unknown elements of upgrades on both cars and it would appear to be a wide open contest between the top two teams going into this one. Romain Grosjean. The Haas is fundamentally a good car, an impressive follow-up after the team’s debut season in 2016, but Grosjean doesn’t yet have a great deal to show for it; one finish in the points in Bahrain and a fine 6th place on the grid in Australia which sadly wasn’t converted into a result. Russia was one of those events that just didn’t come together for him, and the frustrations over the radio were growing throughout the weekend, before it all ended on the first lap in a clash with Palmer. Expect to see a rejuvenated Grosjean in Spain, on a circuit where the car showed well in testing and where Grosjean qualified 3rd in the Lotus back in 2012. He scored some useful points here in 2014 and 2015, but was only 14th on the grid last year and retired early with brake problems. They are still trying to get the brakes right, but aero balance will be more crucial here and that should be a benefit. The Frenchman will want to start the European season in style. Jolyon Palmer. The other half of the contretemps in Russia, and a driver who has had a miserable start to the season. Two accidents in qualifying, reliability problems, getting caught out by yellow flags, you name it, and it has probably happened. On top of that, his team mate Nico Hulkenberg is relishing his new environment and making the most of tyres that can be pushed hard, an area of his game that suffered with the previous Pirellis. Jolyon is mentally resilient as he proved last year, when a similarly difficult start to the season was converted into a sequence of decent results in the second half, sufficient to persuade Renault to retain him for this year. But he will need all of that mental strength to cut through the chatter in the background and deliver for what is now a full manufacturer effort with big budgets and big targets. Russian driver Sergey Sirotkin will be driving Jolyon’s car in first practice, just to make life even more difficult but this is a circuit they all know intimately, so he shouldn’t be phased about losing that 90 minute session. What counts is qualifying and the race, and that’s where his best efforts must lie. Looking back over the three years of the Russian Grand Prix, you’d think it was a slam dunk that Mercedes will win this weekend. It’s a power hungry circuit that devours the best power units in the business, and in qualifying it’s clear that Mercedes still have the ability to turn up the wick and exploit extra speed for the short duration of one lap. In addition, qualifying is crucial as overtaking is tough and there are relatively few pitstops on a circuit that doesn’t overstretch the tyres. Mercedes have won all three races from pole position and only been beaten in two out of the nine practice sessions held here, and that was down to some slippery track conditions that interrupted their normal running. Valtteri Bottas will no doubt look at that record with some relish, because he has a pretty decent CV here himself. Always qualifying third fastest, indeed promoted to the front row last year thanks to Vettel’s gearbox penalty, he’s finished on the podium once but was in position to do it again in 2015 before an altercation with Raikkonen put paid to that, and he was a solid 4th last year. His current race engineer at Mercedes guided Rosberg to a genuine pole over Lewis here in 2015 and Nico was unfortunate in the race when a throttle problem took him out of the lead and into retirement. Last year the eventual champion made up for that, helped by engine problems for Hamilton in qualifying, so there’ll be some real confidence on that side of the garage particularly after Valtteri delivered pole position in Bahrain a couple of weeks ago. But in order to win his first Grand Prix, he needs to deliver a solid race performance, and so far in the three races we’ve seen this year, there have been hiccups. A slower than ideal first stint in Australia, a spin behind the Safety Car in China and a tough opening stint in Bahrain on over-inflated tyres which melded into a less than satisfactory run on Super Softs in the middle of the race. The level of intensity in the competition between Mercedes and Ferrari this year means any weaknesses will be amplified, errors will be brutally exposed and the Finn has to step up now and show he can deliver at this highest level. Perhaps he can take inspiration from the venue; the site of the Winter Olympics in 2014, the circuit weaves its way between the medal plaza, the figure skating stadium and a building which started life hosting the speed skating but now houses some of the biggest tennis events in the country. Bottas was a talented ice hockey player himself as a youngster, following in the footsteps of his father Rauno who played at a high level, and still enjoys any opportunity to take to the ice. Could it be that some of that high speed hand-eye coordination and proprioception skills that are so useful in motorsport were developed with hockey stick in hand and puck to chase? Wherever his skills came from, he now has to show he can compete with the very best in the world. Talking of which, if we end up with a front row made up of Hamilton and Vettel then the flat-out blast to Turn 2 at the start of the race could provide some real fireworks. Vettel ended up in the wall at Turn 3 last year, and Hamilton saw his team mate lunge and lock up back in 2014, effectively ending the competition there and then. So even if Bottas doesn’t quite make the numbers in qualifying, he could be well placed to pick up the pieces in the race. So yes, I believe he can win in Russia but to do so he’ll need to draw on his Finnish Sisu, that resilience and determination to overcome all odds that his nation is famous for, and which has helped create three F1 World Champions in the past 35 years. |
AuthorF1 commentator Ben Edwards sets out some thoughts. Archives
May 2018
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