On Russia

I wonder what kind of mishap can afflict Lewis Hamilton this weekend in Russia? Winner of the two previous races around the Sochi Winter Olympic Park, he has to start as favourite but then he’s had that honour at the first three races of the season, and failed to win any of them. Somewhere between “Lights Out” and the exit of Turn One, each of those three races has gone wrong; a poor getaway in Australia, contact with the Williams of Bottas in Bahrain and then starting from the back and more contact in China, ending up with a car that handled, in his own words, like a four poster bed. Surely things will take a turn for the better this weekend…..


Mercedes arrive as the dominant force in the two previous editions of this race, held on Russia’s Black Sea coast. The track may be a street circuit connecting the stadia of the 2014 Winter Olympics, but with two significantly long flat out sections, this is a power hungry layout that favours the strength of the Mercedes hybrid; in 2014 the first 5 cars in the race were powered by units adorned by the three pointed star. This year there is less of a difference between the four engine manufacturers Mercedes, Ferrari, Renault and Honda; it was notable that Daniel Ricciardo was able to put his Red Bull on the front row of the grid in China and lead the opening lap despite his TAG Heuer branded Renault engine still awaiting a major mid season upgrade. Quietly, the Renault and indeed Honda engines have been brought to a level which is much closer to the best and Red Bull in particular cannot be discounted, as Kvyat’s podium result in China further demonstrated, but this is likely to be a weekend where any discrepancy in power output is shown in sharp relief.


So, what about Ferrari? Well, by most accounts the engine is almost a match for Mercedes but with some niggling reliabilty problems which have perhaps forced them to run it a little more conservatively than they would like. The team is due a good result; they’ve been well positioned a couple of times this year, only for it to slip through their fingers, but I’m not sure this will necessarily be their chance to shine. The red cars can be slightly easier on their tyres under certain circumstances, but there’s a low grip surface here that’s more in keeping with the various ice skating venues dotted around the complex and the challenge is not so much to look after the tyre, but to work it hard enough to generate grip. Opportunities for a clever race strategy are very limited; perhaps an appearance from the Safety Car will change the outlook, but in a straightforward race, most drivers will make just one pit stop. 


So the odds have to favour Mercedes, and then it comes down to a straight duel between Hamilton and Rosberg, a contest that may well be decided on the run to the first corner. And here’s a thing; the distance from the grid to the first braking area is the longest on the current F1 calendar, the equivalent of two quarter-mile drag strips end to end. Two years ago, Rosberg made the better start from second on the grid and was on the verge of taking control until he locked up his brakes, messed up his tyres and allowed Lewis an uncontested victory. Given his recent run of form at the start of a Grand Prix, I wonder if there will be any extra nerves on the grid for the British triple champion, or is this just the chance that he’s been looking for to kick start his campaign? Turn One could yet again be the key to his entire weekend.