Hungary

It is bizarre that the winner of the Hungarian GP has not gone on to win that year’s world championship since Michael Schumacher in 2004. Since then, every winner has been against the run of form for the season, as proven by Vettel’s victory last year for Ferrari and Ricciardo’s the year before in the Red Bull. Yet this is one of Lewis Hamilton’s favourite hunting grounds, and as he goes into this race with a very good opportunity to take the lead in the World Championship, I wonder if that statistic is going to be broken this year.
Lewis loves the Hungaroring. In many ways it is like a giant kart circuit, with hairpins, chicanes, and constantly changing trajectories over a relatively compact layout. Watching him flick the car around on the brakes yet always maintaining momentum is a real joy; last year he was on pole by half a second from Rosberg on what is a relatively short track, but victory has eluded him this last two years. An engine fire meant a pit lane start in 2014 and last year, his own mistakes on the first lap and then later in an incident with Ricciardo counted against him. Mind you, Rosberg has been unable to pick up the pieces when his team mate has had troubles here. He has never achieved a podium finish at this track and finished down in 8th last year after his own late clash with Ricciardo.
The Australian clearly thrives on the atmosphere just a few miles outside the grand city of Budapest. His victory in 2014 was beautifully judged, and despite finishing 3rd behind his team mate Kvyat last year, it was in fact one of his best, most feisty drives. The Red Bulls arrive here knowing they have a real chance of taking Mercedes on in a straight fight. Daniel took a genuine pole position at Monaco, and there’s every chance that they will be on the pace this weekend. Verstappen is another ex karting champion who relishes this kind of challenge, and last year he took his best result of his F1 career to that point with a 4th place finish here. The fly in the ointment could be tyre management. A new surface has been laid around the 2.7 mile track, and it is reportedly more grippy and more likely to absorb the intense heat of the sun with its dark, unburnished asphalt. Red Bull struggled in similar circumstances in Baku, but perhaps the lessons learned that weekend will assist them this time. 
In theory, the liklihood of thermal degradation taking a toll on the tyres should shift conditions towards Ferrari. The cars are kinder on their rubber but every time we have expected a competitive showing from the team in recent weeks, they have failed to deliver. Vettel did win this race 12 months ago, however, with a perfect getaway and a well managed race, and Kimi Raikkonen was running 2nd until he suffered problems with his power unit. The pressure is on at the Italian team, with big boss Sergio Marchionne wanting answers and seeking progress, and these back-to-back weekends in Hungary and Germany will dictate the mood going into the August break.
Elsewhere, McLaren have got to be hopeful of a double points finish. As the most succesful team in the history of this event, they will be optimistic that a lack of ultimate horsepower will be less of a deficit here. Both Alonso and Button have won the Hungarian GP in the past, the car has developed reasonably well on the chassis side and there are opportunities to be taken. Anything less than a first double in Q3 since the end of 2014 would have to be regarded as a let-down, and there will be a real desire to prove the potential for next year.
Expect the unexpected; It’s an event that springs surprises and ignores the formbook, adding a spiciness to the world championship worthy of the paprika that predominates in the local cuisine.