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Baku

18/6/2016

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A new venue, a new country on the F1 calendar is a significant occasion. A change is as good as a rest, and in this hectic 2016 schedule it's healthy for everyone to experience an all new challenge. From drivers learning the fastest lines, to engineers calculating the ideal set-up, to TV directors working out the best angles and spectators seeking out the best vantage points, this weekend provides an opportunity for fresh thinking and quick reactions. Baku is a clean sheet of paper, a chance to forget the past and write a whole new chapter. But will it lead to a different result?
Canada was another tour de force from Mercedes and from Lewis Hamilton. Not only do they have intrinsic speed, they have the ability to work out the best strategy and then make it happen. Hamilton has now driven two races, Monaco and Montreal, during which he took tyre life beyond the expectations of many, and made it look easy. Yes, he has the best car, although the margin of advantage has definitely shrunk, but he also has an innate gift for feeling the grip level in any circumstances and working to maximise that over a long distance. Last time out, he was in a real race with Vettel and you could see from both of their reactions afterwards that they had been absolutely on the limit and relishing a proper contest. It has been rare to see a race where the leaders can push so hard without a rapid loss of tyre performance, but the weather conditions and nature of the circuit in Canada led to just that kind of duel. 
This weekend, the contest will take place on what will be the fastest street circuit seen in F1. The final section could well be the longest full throttle stretch of any track in the world and that includes the run from La Source at Spa right through Eau Rouge and up to Les Combes. The teams are talking about running low downforce set-ups, perhaps even as minimal as at Monza, although the potential slipperiness of a new surface may count against that. Ferrari came close to winning last weekend and there's no reason why they shouldn't be equally competitive in Baku, but then again Red Bull have a great chassis and a much improved engine and it was an inability to make the tyres work to their potential which cost them performance in Canada. Verstappen and Ricciardo come to a circuit where neither has previous knowledge, and that will be a fascinating internal contest. Mercedes will start as favourites, having yet to be beaten in a straight fight when they haven't taken each other out, but their supremacy is beginning to wane. 
The beauty of it is, nobody really knows what's going to happen. There has been no testing, the circuit has only just been completed, and little details of positioning of kerbs and white lines and bumps are all unknown. Simulators can teach drivers the basic layout, but the reality is everyone will be learning it for the first time in free practice on Friday (which I'm glad to say will be covered comprehensively on Channel 4). In the City of Winds, capital of the Land of Fire, who's going to come back down to earth, and who's going to soar beside the shores of the Caspian Sea?
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