Austria

From the cityscapes and high-rise backdrops of Montreal and Baku, it’s a complete contrast this weekend at the Red Bull Ring which nestles not at the foot of skyscrapers but in the lower reaches of the Styrian mountains, surrounded by green fields and pine forests, and lying some 46 miles from the nearest major conurbation, Graz. It’s a picturesque and compact circuit, and whilst it might not offer any particularly daunting challenges, completing a perfect lap is surprisingly difficult; just ask the Mercedes drivers who have both failed to enjoy an ideal Q3 session in the last two years. In 2014, Hamilton spun under braking and the subsequent yellow flag prevented Rosberg from matching Massa who therefore scored his first pole position in nearly 6 seasons. Last year, braking too late at Turn 1 accounted for Hamilton whereas it was Turn 9 for Nico; neither completed their second run in Q3 but this time they had done enough on their initial forays to secure the front row with the Brit ahead of his German rival on the grid, only to lose that advantage into Turn 1 at the start and indeed for the rest of the race. 
In fact, Rosberg has won both races to have been held here since Red Bull boss Dietrich Mateschitz persuaded Bernie Ecclestone to reinstate the Austrian Grand Prix. It is one of the few venues that Hamilton has so far failed to conquer, but after a disappointing weekend in Azerbaijan he will be super-motivated to add it to his list of accomplishments. Mind you, I’m not sure that the two title protagonists will have it all their own way. This weekend sees the return of the Ultra Soft Pirelli tyre, and when it was used in Monaco and Montreal we saw some very effective opposition from Red Bull and Ferrari. Ricciardo was on pole in Monaco and Vettel was just 0.18s away from pole position in Canada, and both teams felt denied victory in the corresponding races. Getting the best out of the tyre in qualifying is not always straightforward, and we have seen in the past that if there’s an Achilles Heel for Mercedes, it may be in their ability to make the most of the softest compounds. Since last year’s Austrian race, the circuit has also been resurfaced, and that will add another unknown element to the mix.
In addition, we shouldn’t discount Force India or Williams from these ponderings. Despite the track having more of a flow than the last couple, it is still a power-hungry layout and the Mercedes power units will thrive. Perez was genuinely the 2nd fastest qualifier in Baku (admittedly after Hamilton had hit the wall) and Williams have enjoyed a podium visit at this track in each of the last two years, to consolidate that qualifying performance of 2014 that saw both cars on the front row. Bearing in mind that the lap length is relatively short, I can see this being the closest Top 10 shoot out of the entire season. Everybody will be aiming to shave hundredths of a second from their laptimes, and the potential for more errors under braking in those critical areas will expand accordingly. And partly because braking here is such a key to a good lap, I’m going to be keeping a particular eye on Max Verstappen. He has so far been outqualified at every event as team mate to Daniel Ricciardo but his weekend may just be his chance to end that sequence. And if he can mix it up with the Mercedes drivers, that would make Mr Mateschitz a very happy man.