The final title-deciding round of the F1 championship is upon us and a nail-biting weekend awaits. The culmination of a see-saw battle between the two Mercedes team mates will take place as the sun sets on the 21st and final event of the year; the night sky will be illuminated by thousands of LEDs covering the hotel that spans the track and by fireworks celebrating a winner at the end of it all. But which of the team mates will emerge triumphant?


Rosberg is the leader in the points and a top three finish will suffice, no matter what Hamilton does. Nico needs to keep calm and carry on doing what he has done for the last three races; shadow Hamilton’s every move, qualify ahead of the opposing Ferraris and Red Bulls, stay out of trouble and rack up the points. It is easier said than done; he was close to being taken out twice by Verstappen in Mexico through the normal give and take of racing and his half spin in the rain of Brazil would have had massive consequences if it had gone any further. It reminded me of that crucial moment in 2010 when Mark Webber lost control of his car, and of the World Championship lead, in the rain of South Korea. On that occasion, the car slewed across the track and was collected, ironically by Rosberg, putting both out of the race immediately. Two races later the championship decider took place in Abu Dhabi, and Mark was never quite in a position to recover from that loss.


The man who did win that famous curtain call of 2010 was Sebastian Vettel, the tenth time that a driver who hadn’t been leading the points going into the final race came through to claim the crown. He turned around a deficit of 15 points, so there’s hope on the horizon for Hamilton, even if he does need a little bit of luck to go his way. Beaten in qualifying by Rosberg in each of the previous years as team mates in Abu Dhabi, he will be fired up to deliver his very best on Saturday to give him a position of control for Sunday. And then it gets interesting; surely the only way he can influence the outcome, despite what he has said in the press conference, is to get in front and then slow the pack, hoping that a Verstappen or a Vettel will be determined to end the season on a high note, and cause confusion for Rosberg who will be much happier with a lonely race. Gamesmanship has a place in every sport, as long as it’s within the rules. Too often we have seen championships won through race-ending contact, and that would be deeply disappointing after what has generally been a pretty clean season, Barcelona and Austria notwithstanding. 


In many ways, this title race feels remarkably similar to that between Niki Lauda and Alain Prost in 1984, another year that saw an astonishing performance by a youngster in the wet, in this case Senna at Monaco. Prost was generally the faster of the McLaren pair, and tended to win the wheel to wheel encounters. But Lauda stuck to his task, benefited from some good fortune and won the championship by half a point. Mind you, he qualified down in 11th for the final race and only snatched the vital 2nd place he needed when Nigel Mansell suffered brake failure with 18 laps to go. The omens are good for a fantastic season finale. 
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So the World Championship could be settled by the end of this weekend. If Nico Rosberg wins the race here in Brazil, as he has done on the past two occasions, he will emulate his father and carry away the biggest prize in motorsport. It must be such a tantalising prospect to him, and yet on the other side of his Mercedes garage is the man who can still rip away those childhood dreams, the man who has beaten him in two season-long contests already, and a man who seems to have found his feet again after a slight aberration combined with some poor luck on F1's Asian tour.

One of the most repeated statistics this weekend will be the fact that Lewis Hamilton has never won in Brazil. This is his tenth attempt and despite wrapping up the 2008 title here, for a variety of reasons the outright win has never gone his way. Perhaps the simplicity of his objective this time will help him overcome the record books; assuming Rosberg finishes the race in reasonable shape, Lewis needs to win to stay in the hunt and take it to the finale in Abu Dhabi. That kind of clarity of focus is an advantage at this tense stage of the season, and as much as Rosberg will state his usual mantra of aiming to maximise each race as it comes, the implications of different results will play more heavily in the number 6 car, and a moment's hesitation or doubt across the entire weekend could prove costly. If Rosberg were to suffer a non finish and Hamilton takes the win, suddenly Lewis would be back in front with one race to go.

The tension won't only affect the two drivers; the whole Mercedes team will be desperate to give them the tools to do the job on track and not let car problems or a poor tactical call decide the outcome. Each member of the team will want to perform at their best but after 19 races spread around the globe nobody is going to be feeling at their freshest. This will be as much of a test of their ability to perform under pressure as it is of the drivers, and up to now you have to say they have done a fantastic job, despite Hamilton's engine failure in Malaysia which as far as we know was nothing to do with a mistake from the race team, but a problem further back down the line. There are so many subtle little ways in which a weekend can get away from even the strongest of teams, and last time out in Mexico proved just how tough and competitive this unit is, defying both the race pace Ferrari had shown on the Friday and the qualifying pace that Red Bull displayed on Saturday to earn yet another one-two finish. Yes, they have the best car but the human element behind that success should not be forgotten.
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And it will be on the track between the lakes, Interlagos, where the next chapter unfolds, a chapter that could possibly bring an early ending to a fascinating story, but one which I expect will still have a few surprises in store. The undulating terrain, an ever present risk of a shower, a first corner that invites passing attempts and a passionate Brazilian crowd which will be there to give Felipe Massa an emotional send-off in his last home race all add up to an event not to be missed. One of the most exciting races I ever commentated on was here in 2012 when Vettel won the title, and Hamilton's dramatic final lap of 2008 is legend. This track can be a maverick, and it could well be the setting for another Tale of the Unexpected. 

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