The news this last week of two neutron stars spinning ever closer to one another and then impacting to shower the universe with gold made me realise just how much we might be missing out on a climax to this championship as a result of Ferrari’s recent troubles. It’s as if one of the stars suddenly went off at a tangent and the universe has been left in the dark. But hold on, because there is still plenty of intrigue and interest left in the remaining four races of the World Championship, and arriving in Austin for the US Grand Prix always provides an additional buzz.


Hamilton has a brilliant record in the States, matching Senna and Schumacher for five wins and easily capable of extending that to six this weekend. He is driving superbly well, we have seen no evidence of any dips in motivation and that fourth title is almost within grasp. He seems to relish the Circuit of the Americas, having won the last three in a row, plus the first one here in 2012 when he took on and passed Vettel in a straight fight. The car may be a Diva, according to Toto Wolff but Lewis seems to know how to coax the best out of her. Meanwhile at Ferrari, Vettel’s car (which he named Gina at the start of the year...) is quick in almost all conditions and the team should be more competitive here than in recent years. Seb himself has had more poles than Lewis here, and has taken fastest lap at every race bar one. 


Red Bull will also be in the hunt, with a solid record of podium finishes in the past, and a car that is clearly a match for either of the top two in race conditions. Verstappen is on a roll after that win in Malaysia and a fighting 2nd in Japan, and as long as he’s learnt from the mistake of coming into the pits in Austin when the team wasn’t expecting him, he should be a contender once again.


Meanwhile, in the heart of the pack there’s plenty to watch out for. At Toro Rosso, the Torpedo is back, as Daniil Kvyat is granted another opportunity to prove what he can do. He had one of his best ever performances here in the early stages of the damp 2015 race when he was fighting for the lead with Hamilton; sadly he speared into the barrier at the penultimate corner much later in the race, and it’s those kinds of errors that have kept him from fulfilling his potential. Joining him for what could be a one-off race or perhaps the precursor to more is New Zealand’s Brendon Hartley. At one time in his career he was understudy to Vettel as Sebastian started winning regularly for Red Bull, but Brendon’s single seater results at the time simply weren’t good enough for him to earn promotion. Having rebuilt his career and confidence with Porsche, he won the World Endurance Championship alongside Mark Webber in 2015, he’s on target to do it again this year and he won Le Mans in June. Although it is 33 years since a Kiwi was in a Formula 1 race, the first ever US GP was won by another; Bruce McLaren. 


Toro Rosso have been put in the unusual situation of completely changing their driver line up from Japan partly as a result of Carlos Sainz moving early to Renault, and that’s going to be another focus of attention this weekend. For all the talk about time to settle in, this is F1 and you are judged from the moment you jump in the car, before even leaving the pit lane. Sainz will want to start his career with the team strongly, and he has every chance; he was an excellent 6th last year with Toro Rosso, at the time matching his best career result, and he was 7th the year before in the wet race. Sainz vs Hulkenberg is going to be one of the stories of the next 18 months and it starts right here in Austin. 


So while Hamilton and Vettel’s orbits have separated after the Asian escapades, the ripples of change throughout the grid are like gravitational waves created by colliding astronomical bodies and the outcomes will begin to evolve here in the Lone Star State. 

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1. It's Old School. This is a track of its era, the 1960s, and has remained remarkably true to its original scope. From a flat-out blast dropping downhill past the pits to the meandering S curves that climb back up the other side this circuit is narrow, fast, twisty, and unforgiving. A few inches off line and the car will be clipping the grass to one side, and from there it's often a short distance to the barrier. Mistakes have real consequences, but then the best drivers respond to that with millimetre accuracy and utter commitment. Mind you, one of the strangest statistics here is that Hamilton, Alonso and Raikkonen with 6 world titles between them have never taken pole position. 

2. Variable weather. While the prospects of a typhoon appear to be slim this year, the variety of weather in autumnal Honshu can still throw a spanner in the works. Temperatures can vary enormously; carry a raincoat, a fleece and plenty of suncream. Even over the course of this weekend the temperatures are set to change considerably from a cool and damp Friday to a warm and dry Sunday and that will have a key influence on outcomes. Mercedes will be looking for cooler temperatures where their package works best, but Ferrari will want the opposite, and look set to be given that on raceday.

3. Lessons from history. Nico Rosberg won this race last year from pole for Mercedes while Hamilton spent the afternoon recovering from a poor start from his front row slot, but failed to find a way past Verstappen at the end and settled for third. Ferrari were the second fastest team but both drivers carried penalties into the race that set them back on the grid, but Red Bull were only a fraction behind on sheer pace. Judging by performance levels in Malaysia it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see pole position going to either Ferrari or Red Bull, even though Mercedes have annexed the front row for the last three years. Red Bull dominated this event when Vettel was winning his 4 titles; now they are in separate camps it is difficult to predict which will emerge ahead. 

4. Dutch on Dutch. Max Verstappen's superb drive in Malaysia just reconfirmed his potential; we know what he's capable of, but it was encouraging to see fortunes favour him for once. As David Coulthard mentioned on our C4 programme, the Suzuka circuit was designed by a Dutchman, John Hugenholtz who was also responsible for the original layout at Zandvoort and another twisty, narrow delight; Jarama in Spain. He used the natural rolling terrain here in Japan to create the only figure of eight circuit on the current calendar. His fellow countryman has excelled on the 3.6 mile layout since making his Friday morning practice debut for Toro Rosso in 2014 and if his luck has truly changed, I reckon his chances of back to back wins are pretty high. But if Ferrari can recover quickly from the setbacks in Sepang and if Mercedes can get the tyres in the right working range, it will still be a mighty tough contest.

5. A warm welcome to Japan. Passionate fans bedecked in handmade regalia wait for hours on end on the approach to the circuit, hoping for the briefest glimpse of their heroes yet always happy, smiling, enthusiastic. Spectators in the grandstand opposite the pits, sitting in their seats well into the night on Saturday just to watch from a distance the work that's going on in the garages, giving the mechanics a real sense that their efforts are appreciated. Despite the fact that there's no Japanese driver in the field and that Honda are not exactly at their best right now, there is still a wonderful atmosphere at this place created by people who simply love the sport, and what could be better than that?