Returning to the calendar last year, the Mexican Grand Prix proved to be a passionate and atmospheric event. The bedrock of support for Formula 1 in this country goes back to the early 1960s when two brothers Pedro and Ricardo Rodriguez made a name for themselves at the highest level of motorsport, but tragically in Ricardo’s case over a very short period. He was killed in practice at this venue, now named in their honour, while Pedro went on to a successful career in both F1 and sportscars before also becoming the victim of a much more dangerous era.

Taking those early years into account, this potentially could be the fourth time that the World Championship is decided here, a venue that back then was the host of the year’s final Grand Prix.  John Surtees took a crucial 2nd place in 1964 to become the only man to have won the World Championship on both two wheels and four, while Denny Hulme wrapped up the title ahead of team mate and boss Jack Brabham in 1967. Graham Hill took an emotional 2nd crown here in 1968 when both of his rivals suffered mechanical misfortunes, and for this race to be the decisive one in 2016, it will take either mechanical problems or an accident for Lewis Hamilton in combination with a victory for Rosberg to settle the outcome in the German's favour with two races to go. 

Lewis drove a superb weekend in Austin, he looked absolutely committed throughout, nailed the start and had so much control that he spent the race worrying about his car letting him down. The reality is that this current Mercedes team has a very good reliability record in the races, except of course for that bizarre engine failure in Malaysia which has given Rosberg such a useful buffer in the points. Hamilton’s other engine problems earlier in the year struck in qualifying and had a knock-on effect in the races, but never stopped him scoring points. Rosbertg, meanwhile, last suffered a mechanical failure in Russia over a year ago with a broken throttle mechanism putting him out entirely. So the odds are not high that Hamilton will suffer a breakdown in the race, but  you never know. 

I doubt that this will be the last chapter in an enthralling battle. Hamilton has not given up, and every weekend offers an opportunity for Red Bull or Ferrari to squeeze into the mix, as we saw when Ricciardo held 2nd for part of the race in Austin. I wouldn’t put it past Lewis to try and make use of their rivals to put a few gaps between himself and Rosberg, especially on the opening lap. Of course, Rosberg can avoid that by taking pole position and making a break, staying out of trouble and further bolstering his championship lead. As ever, he claims his focus is entirely on winning this weekend’s race and nothing else, and yet how can he ignore the tantalising presence of a first World title?

Meanwhile, the Mexican fans will be cheering every move that Sergio Perez and Esteban Giutierrez make, and the atmosphere in the final stadium section will be captivating as it was last year. It also created one of the best podium celebrations seen in a long time, a sensation that Nico Rosberg appeared to draw strength from as it set him up for a 7 race winning sequence that put him in such a strong position in the early stage of this championship. In theory, he could be celebrating not just a win but a title here  on Sunday, but Lewis Hamilton will be utterly determined to prevent it.

The US Grand Prix at Austin has become a firm favourite on the calendar despite its relative youth. Combining a circuit with real flow, an eye catching elevation change, some fiddly sections which encourage mistakes, and a couple of genuine overtaking areas with the energy and quirkiness of the city where live music rules the roost, this is a brilliant venue. The climate in October is usually pretty warm during the days, cooling off a touch at night, but it can deliver a surprise as we saw in the wake of tropical storm Patricia last year.

Additional attention will no doubt surround the race this weekend, and not just because Taylor Swift is playing a concert on Saturday night. For the first time, home fans will have a team to shout about in the shape of Haas, and with both cars in Q3 last time in Japan, there has to be some optimism for a points paying finish. Romain Grosjean had one of his best ever races here a few years ago in a Lotus, finishing 2nd in a Red Bull sandwich and his passionate nature will hopefully have won him some fans in the States, even if we have been aware of some downside to that passion in recent races when things aren't right with the car. On the other side of the garage, Esteban Gutierrez is approaching what may well be the highlight of his career, a home Grand Prix in Mexico, but he is under pressure to deliver after a point-less season so far.

Talking of points, at the sharp end of the table the events of Japan have put a whole new twist on the championship outcome. Lewis Hamilton has said in the past he's at his best when coming from behind and he's got the opportunity to prove it now. He has to put together the perfect end to the season, ideally a string of four victories, but in doing so it still may not be enough if Rosberg can hang onto his coat-tails throughout. Mercedes still have the best all round package for most circuits we visit, and therefore the prospect of a one-two between them is always likely. But Circuit of the Americas is a track at which Red Bull have been very competitive and, in good news for Ferrari, it is also a place where Vettel has always shone. So there is still the chance of the Mercedes boys being separated either in qualifying or in the race which could swing the points pendulum hugely one way or the other.
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I get the feeling that this championship still has some unexpected moments ahead. The pressure is building, Hamilton has been in this situation before and conquered those nerves whereas Rosberg is yet to come away with the ultimate prize. Both of them are extremely motivated; next year there could be a different ranking amongst teams and there's no guarantee that Mercedes will be winning as comfortably. Hamilton is hoping to emulate Prost and Vettel in becoming a four time World Champion, Rosberg is hoping to become the second son of a World Champion to repeat the feat 20 years since Damon Hill achieved it. But the Texas flag tells a story; at the end of the season, there will be only one winner, a Lone Star. 

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It's impossible to look ahead to the Japanese Grand Prix without casting a backward glance to the extraordinary happenings in Malaysia. From seeing a championship lead of eight points apparently disappear as he was clouted into a spin at Turn 1, Nico Rosberg could have been 17 points in arrears if his car had been badly damaged and Hamilton had gone on to win. Instead the German has a 23 point lead with five races to go and a sequence of races that has been mostly good for him in the past. Accepted, he hasn't won in Japan despite outqualifying Lewis in each of the past two years, and his error in Austin last year led to his final hopes of 2015 championship success disappearing. But he did have a great sequence of victories after that, and he has won in both Mexico and Brazil, two races that are yet to be conquered by Hamilton.  


So, how will things develop at Suzuka? Based on the past and on the events of last weekend, Red Bull must go into the event with a feeling of optimism. This circuit has seen spectacular success for them over the years with four wins between 2009 and 2013. Their superb chassis will be in its element on the demanding curves that climb behind the pits, snaking their way through Dunlop and Degner and searing through Spoon. The Mercedes is still the greater all round package, but with inclement weather forecast in Japan, there may also be options for clever tactics in the race, as we saw in Sepang when Red Bull were able to split their strategies between cars and make a pincer movement on Hamilton that may have had some effect on forcing him to push his engine harder than he would have liked. 


The highlight of the Malaysia GP for me was the sight of Ricciardo and Verstappen running side by side through almost three corners, racing hard yet fairly, and then being able to congratulate each other afterwards. It was refreshing and exciting, a situation which had developed due to differing strategies and it renewed my faith that Formula 1 can provide some real wheel to wheel racing that doesn't have to end in tears. Verstappen's mature reaction to being beaten to the win by his team mate despite having been the one most likely to be first Red Bull home for much of the weekend was also a sign that he is taking on every lesson this year. If the team really does produce a car that can challenge for wins throughout next season, we are in for a real treat.


But back to this coming weekend and a riot of passionate support from partisan Japanese fans on a track with few compromises. Ferrari do not have a great record here in recent years, despite holding the joint highest number of wins outright. The last time a Ferrari qualified in the top 3 at Suzuka was in 2006, and in 27 editions only four races have been won from outside the front row. Perhaps the weather will allow Vettel to demonstrate those brilliant skills which led to his first ever victory at Monza in 2008, but on the other hand the way his season is self destructing, perhaps it's going to be more like Fuji 2007 when he crashed into Mark Webber during a Safety Car period. It is hard to find any silver linings on the Ferrari cloud right now. 


Back in the pack, McLaren will want to give their Honda partners something to get excited about, and last year Alonso finished just outside the points despite his 'GP2' engine. Having finished 7th in four of the last six races, perhaps this weekend will provide an opportunity for something a little more special from both him and Jenson, at what is a favourite track for both of them. If last weekend was anything to go by, we should be in for a cracker at Suzuka. 
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