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One of the great commentary lines of all time, Kenneth Wolstenholme’s reaction to a pitch invasion as England was about to win the 1966 World Cup, could easily be attached to the current state of play in F1. The accident immediately after the lights went out in SIngapore which led to Vettel’s demise just two corners later has made a huge difference in what until now has been a delicate see-saw balance between the two big title rivals, but suddenly all the impetus is with Hamilton who carries a 28 point lead with six events to go.
But is it all over? Hamilton and Esteban Ocon are the only drivers on the grid to have completed every racing lap this year, and at some stage you would expect either or both to have some sort of problem. True, they both have the benefit of Mercedes power which this year has been almost faultless in terms of reliability but there are so many ways for a Grand Prix to go wrong, and here in Malaysia there are some particular hurdles to clear. Weather is one of them, with the ever-present chance of a thunderstorm and consequent mishaps and tyre gambles which can turn a race upside down. The rain delivered Lewis a unique opportunity in Singapore and he grabbed it with both hands, but his wet weather driving skills won’t necessarily help if someone else aquaplanes into him. Add in the fact that Turn 1 is notorious for incident, as we saw last year when Vettel speared into Rosberg, and the chances for mayhem are pretty high. Vettel himself won’t have given up just because of one bad race. He’s the most successful driver in the 18 year history of the Malaysia Grand Prix, having won on four occasions and the venue has always been a good one for Ferrari with Eddie Irvine winning the first ever race with help from Michael Schumacher who then went on to win another three. Ferrari’s pace at Spa should be a further encouragement for a circuit like this, with its blend of high speed and stop-start corners, and although Mercedes have taken pole position for the last three years in a row, they’ve only taken the one victory back in 2014. If Vettel can convert that pedigree into victory this weekend, he will still feel on target to snatch the title; in 2010 he was battling with the likes of Fernando Alonso, Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton and with six races to go (the same as right now) he was 31 behind Hamilton. In 2012 with six to go, he was 29 points behind Alonso and yet in both seasons he went on to win the championship. The scenario was different in that there were more drivers in race-winning cars in both of those years, but the resurgence of Red Bull in this latter part of the season could still play a role in the outcome and Vettel now has to adopt the straightforward mindset of going for everything, whereas Hamilton is the one who will perhaps think twice in protecting his advantage. The title race is not all over, but Vettel has to deliver here in Malaysia with some strong back-up from Raikkonen. If not, it will be all too tempting to complete Wolstenholme’s line and say ”It is now…”
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The final third of the F1 season is a hectic world tour from East to West, ending in the Middle but beginning with the Singapore street race. Now in its 10th year, the night time extravaganza has captured both avid race fans and weekend party animals. Grab a cocktail, enjoy a concert, watch the fastest racing drivers in the world and dance the night away in a nearby club. The blend of ambitious Asian economy with Formula One glamour has been symbiotic and profitable on both sides, and we can expect an announcement of an extended deal this weekend
This event also presents a fascinating competitive challenge at a key stage in the championship. With more corners than any other circuit on the calendar, the emphasis is on chassis not engine. Red Bull have more podium results here than any other team, and having taken the pain of grid penalties in Monza, they should be fighting fit this weekend. Daniel Ricciardo has been second or third for the last three years at a venue that draws plenty of Australian fans and he's found a rich vein of form this season even if his team mate has generally been the faster qualifier. Relentless consistency is the key here, but it needs to be combined with a daring effort in qualifying. Only twice in nine events has this race not been won from pole position. Talking of which, Vettel and Hamilton have each taken three poles here, but in terms of victories on the Marina Bay Circuit, Vettel beats Hamilton 4-2. On current season form Ferrari come into this one as favourites having taken 1-2 finishes in both Monaco and Hungary on similarly low average speed tracks, and Vettel took one of his wins here with the Scuderia in 2015. But it would be foolish to assume anything on this layout, where the key to performance lies in getting the tyres into their sweet spot. That was where Mercedes tripped up two years ago, and found themselves fifth and sixth on the grid, and it was where Hamilton struggled last year while Rosberg coaxed them perfectly and went on to take one of the most significant wins of his entire title winning campaign. Squeezing the last ounce of performance out of the Ultra Soft tyre in qualifying, and then ensuring it lasts in the race will be more important than downforce levels or power unit strength, and that's why I think that Mercedes still have a very realistic shot at winning here. The lessons learnt from that painful 2015 event have not been forgotten, and while they haven't always prepared the tyres perfectly this year, I think they will be on the case this time. Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull - they all have a shot at supremacy in Singapore and being such a tough and unpredictable race there might also be opportunities for others to shine. Esteban Ocon on his 21st birthday perhaps or Carlos Sainz now that his future is mapped out and his career is on the climb, or even McLaren Honda.... There's no easy formula for success on the flood-lit streets sweltering under a tropical night sky. In a city where cocktails are high on the menu, this weekend's Formula One race should supply a heady mix. |
AuthorF1 commentator Ben Edwards sets out some thoughts. Archives
May 2018
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