Less than 4 hours drive north of Singapore, the Sepang International circuit offers a very different style of event from that of two weeks ago. From the heart of a thriving city enjoying its pleasures after dark, to a purpose built race circuit some distance away from Kuala Lumpur, this is a ‘conventional’ race weekend, yet with equally demanding temperatures and humidity. It has been a very succesful playground for Sebastian Vettel in recent years, his win last season allowing him to stand alone as a four time winner here. That victory in early 2015 was his first since joining Ferrari and their first in just under two years; it was a seminal moment but one which sadly has not been built upon this year. Having failed to win a single race in 2016, he may need the customary tropical storms to give him a helping hand. 


Pirelli have brought tyres from the harder end of the spectrum to Malaysia, and the last time we saw this mix in action was at Silverstone where qualifying gave Mercedes an advantage of a full second. Assuming for now that it does stay dry, Mercedes are perfectly placed to wrap up a 3rd straight Constructor’s title but the track has been resurfaced since the cars were last here, and that could upset some of the precise calculations of tyre wear and degradation. Rosberg has never won this race, but then we’ve been saying that since the end of the summer break and he keeps winning at tracks that in the past have eluded him. He rattled through four wins in a row at the start of the season and he has a chance of becoming only the third driver in history to repeat that sequence in a single year. Hamilton has won here, once in 2014, and you have to go back to 2010 for the last time a team mate of his was faster in qualifying, but Singapore threw up a few question marks that he will be keen to dispel. 


Over at Red Bull, there should be some optimism for a decent result on a circuit where they have won three times in six years, but once again they are probably praying for a well-timed rain shower to achieve the target of outright race victory. Last year was actually a bit dismal for them; having made the most of a wet qualifying, both cars finished behind the Toro Rossos in a dry race. Ricciardo drove superbly in Singapore and is right at the top of his game whereas Verstappen has suffered some car gremlins at the start of races, and will be aiming to rediscover some of his mid season momentum. 


As for the rest, the habitual contest between Force India and Williams should once again be finely balanced, Toro Rosso will be quick in the middle sector but will miss out on the straights, and McLaren will be celebrating Jenson’s 300th race at the track he scored his first ever podium back in 2004. If those rain showers do arrive at an opportune moment, perhaps he’ll be the one to spring a Sepang surprise.  

Two thirds of the 2016 season have been run and two points separate the major protagonists as we approach the most unpredictable race of the season. Singapore provides the spectacular backdrop to the longest, most gruelling race of the year, and while spectators sip cocktails and limber up for A-list pop stars to gyrate on stage, in between concrete walls drivers are dancing on the edge of traction and trying to keep cool in the tropical night furnace. This event has it all, and like Monaco which it already rivals as one of the must-see and must-be-seen-at Grand Prix, the edginess of the challenge adds another layer of drama.


Qualifying is crucial here as it is in the Principality, but it is not impossible to overtake, particularly when allowing for differing tyre strategies. The Safety Car is a regular visitor, and the race can be turned on its head by an inconveniently scheduled crash. It rewards the very best drivers; only Alonso, Vettel and Hamilton have won on the Marina Bay Street circuit, but critical to any good performance is making the tyres work at their absolute peak, and that's where Mercedes fell down twelve months ago. Soon after Pirelli had introduced tough new measures for protecting the tyres after blow-outs at Spa in 2015, the normally dominant Brackley team completely failed to bring the super soft tyres to their peak; they paid the price as Ferrari hit the sweet spot and romped away with pole position and race victory.


This year, I don't see Mercedes being caught out quite so easily. Their tyre management has been superb this year, and on occasions when we thought they would be at the mercy of Ferrari's slightly less aggressive use of the rubber, they have confounded expectations and creamed the opposition. The Baku street track was a case in point, as was their pace in Austria, the last time we saw the new-for-2016 Ultra Soft tyres in use. But let's not forget that Daniel Ricciardo used those same tyres in Monaco to steal a thoroughly well deserved pole position and set himself up for victory until it all went wrong at the pit stop. This weekend really does provide Red Bull with a chance, and their record here is impressive; at least one driver on the podium at every race since 2010, a total of three wins, and in Ricciardo a driver who has just one place to go after finishing third then second in the last two years. Add in a significant Aussie dimension to the crowd as they take advantage of one of their closer events, and Sunday could be quite a night for the Honey Badger.


Mind you, he'll have to fend off his feisty team mate who fought his way from the back of the field to finish eighth here last year in a Toro Rosso and stubbornly ignored team orders en route. Max Verstappen may have blown his chances in Monaco with an over-ambitious approach, but he'll have learnt from that, and will relish his chance. Red Bull were pegged back by Ferrari at Monza, and Vettel's affinity with this track is astonishing, but even so it's hard to see a repeat of last year's impressive win unless the night-time stars suddenly realign. 


On the other hand, anything can happen. This has to be the most open race of the year so far and predicting a winner is satisfyingly difficult. So, let’s not bother and just enjoy the show.

The Italian Grand Prix at Monza. A short phrase that encapsulates over 90 years of racing thoroughbred cars through the confines of a Royal Park, the sound of racing engines reverberating through the trees, speeds reaching stratospheric numbers and passionate italian fans devouring every moment, especially when there’s a red car on track. Ferrari is a national institution, and the politics and intrigues of what’s happening at the team fill pages and pages of newspapers and magazines. They arrive at their home race on the back foot; not a single win to their credit in 2016 despite winning three last year, a depleted technical team now that James Allison is no longer present, and a weekend to forget in Spa when potential podium finishes were eradicated by a first corner clash.


Italy wants answers to Ferrari’s predicament, and Monza is a place where they always step up. They have won more races here than any other team has achieved at any individual circuit in the world. Apart from 2014 when Alonso suffered his first mechanical retirement in four and a half years at the team, there’s been a Ferrari driver on the podium since the wet race in 2008 when Vettel took his first ever win for Toro Rosso. You have to think that this race is always in the back of the mind for their designers and engineers; when compromises for all of the season’s different circuits are taken into account, surely a little more value is placed on this one which has unique requirements in terms of low drag and pure straight line speed. Expect to see Raikkonen and Vettel working together in qualifying, slipstreaming each other to maximise those speeds. The relationship they have, and perhaps a large part of the decision to retain Kimi, allows them to do this effectively as we saw last year, whereas the concept of mutual benefit in a similar fashion at Mercedes is entirely alien. 


Mind you, everyone will have to do something special to prevent Hamilton winning this race if the record books are anything to go by. He has outqualified Rosberg in each of the last two years, and has taken a total of 4 poles just one short of the record held jointly by Senna and Fangio; not a bad club to be a member of. He adores racing in Italy, where much of his teenage life was spent competing against like-minded racers in karts, and he savours the challenge of a low downforce car dancing under braking and skipping over the kerbs at the crucial chicanes. This place is his domain and now that he’s got plenty of power units at his disposal, he’s ready to stretch out that championship lead. He won five in a row from this point in 2015 and four out of five on his way to the title last year. Having minimised the loss of points in Spa, he has a tremendous position from which to launch that crucial phase.


And what of the others? Well, Hulkenberg missed out on a podium once again at Spa, but this could be another good weekend for Force India who seem to be able to cope with the increased tyre pressures demanded by Pirelli somewhat more comfortably than Williams. Manor Racing will also be interesting to watch, as their low drag car should be in its element. Wehrlein was an early retirement last week but Ocon put in a decent debut and this track presents more opportunity than most. And of course, after the events of Spa, everyone will be watching Max Verstappen’s antics even more closely. It’s time to show that he doesn’t need to employ questionable tactics to keep people behind; he has enough talent to do the job staying the correct side of the dividing line between aggressive and outrageous. 
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