I wonder what kind of mishap can afflict Lewis Hamilton this weekend in Russia? Winner of the two previous races around the Sochi Winter Olympic Park, he has to start as favourite but then he’s had that honour at the first three races of the season, and failed to win any of them. Somewhere between “Lights Out” and the exit of Turn One, each of those three races has gone wrong; a poor getaway in Australia, contact with the Williams of Bottas in Bahrain and then starting from the back and more contact in China, ending up with a car that handled, in his own words, like a four poster bed. Surely things will take a turn for the better this weekend…..


Mercedes arrive as the dominant force in the two previous editions of this race, held on Russia’s Black Sea coast. The track may be a street circuit connecting the stadia of the 2014 Winter Olympics, but with two significantly long flat out sections, this is a power hungry layout that favours the strength of the Mercedes hybrid; in 2014 the first 5 cars in the race were powered by units adorned by the three pointed star. This year there is less of a difference between the four engine manufacturers Mercedes, Ferrari, Renault and Honda; it was notable that Daniel Ricciardo was able to put his Red Bull on the front row of the grid in China and lead the opening lap despite his TAG Heuer branded Renault engine still awaiting a major mid season upgrade. Quietly, the Renault and indeed Honda engines have been brought to a level which is much closer to the best and Red Bull in particular cannot be discounted, as Kvyat’s podium result in China further demonstrated, but this is likely to be a weekend where any discrepancy in power output is shown in sharp relief.


So, what about Ferrari? Well, by most accounts the engine is almost a match for Mercedes but with some niggling reliabilty problems which have perhaps forced them to run it a little more conservatively than they would like. The team is due a good result; they’ve been well positioned a couple of times this year, only for it to slip through their fingers, but I’m not sure this will necessarily be their chance to shine. The red cars can be slightly easier on their tyres under certain circumstances, but there’s a low grip surface here that’s more in keeping with the various ice skating venues dotted around the complex and the challenge is not so much to look after the tyre, but to work it hard enough to generate grip. Opportunities for a clever race strategy are very limited; perhaps an appearance from the Safety Car will change the outlook, but in a straightforward race, most drivers will make just one pit stop. 


So the odds have to favour Mercedes, and then it comes down to a straight duel between Hamilton and Rosberg, a contest that may well be decided on the run to the first corner. And here’s a thing; the distance from the grid to the first braking area is the longest on the current F1 calendar, the equivalent of two quarter-mile drag strips end to end. Two years ago, Rosberg made the better start from second on the grid and was on the verge of taking control until he locked up his brakes, messed up his tyres and allowed Lewis an uncontested victory. Given his recent run of form at the start of a Grand Prix, I wonder if there will be any extra nerves on the grid for the British triple champion, or is this just the chance that he’s been looking for to kick start his campaign? Turn One could yet again be the key to his entire weekend.

What’s in a number?


Lewis Hamilton has a pretty impressive statistical record in China; five pole positions including the last three in a row, and four wins including the last two in a row. Numbers are important in China, with particular numbers carrying certain traits. The number 8 for example is particularly auspicious, as the sound of the spoken word for 8 sounds similar to that meaning wealth. So it could be another good weekend for Romain Grosjean who carries it on his car, and perhaps also a good one for Ryo Haryanto who runs 88. On the other hand, the number four is considered by many to be the equivalent of 13 in the West, and to be avoided at all costs. Well, it doesn’t seem to have affected Lewis; since he chose his permanent number of 44 in 2013, he has taken pole position and won both races in Shanghai on his way to winning the World Championship in both seasons. Perhaps his saving grace is that there are so many dialects in China that in Shanghai the number 4  sounds like the word for water, which is associated with money, and therefore lucky. 

In fact I was quite relieved to come across that nugget of information, working as I am for Channel 4 this year. Indeed, the new broadcaster of F1 in the UK has yet to show a race being won by Hamilton, who has found it more difficult than expected to win his 44th career race. We have to cast our minds back to mid October of last year when he won both the event in Austin and the title, since when of course Nico Rosberg has won every Grand Prix. Mercedes must start as favourites again this weekend, especially given their recent record here, but Ferrari will be itching to mix things up, and surely there is the opportunity here on a track that beats up the left front tyre, and which will see the supersoft Pirelli in action for the first time in China. Last year’s Ferrari lacked the front end bite that allowed it to make the most of the tyre, but this year’s car with the short nose and revised suspension layout could be a more effective tool. 
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I’ll also be keeping a close watch on the Toro Rossos this weekend. Verstappen drove a superb race here 12 months ago, pulling off some breathtaking moves at the hairpin, only for his Renault engine to let go within sight of the flag. Ferrari power, even the older version, should benefit the cars down that long straight and allow them to qualify further up the order. Rear tyre conservation was a concern in Bahrain but it won’t be the factor in Shanghai, and both Williams and Red Bull could be looking over their shoulders to see how the youngsters are doing.

Meanwhile, over at Haas, there must be an eagerness to see what can be achieved next. Funnily enough, it was another American team that last came into the sport and finished Top 6 in its first two races; the Shadow team arrived in 1973 and raced through to 1980. There was one win in that period, courtesy of Alan Jones in his pre-Williams championship winning days, but one slightly worrying stat that comes out of checking the record books is that Shadow failed to score again that first year until the penultimate race of the season. Somehow, I don’t see that being repeated in 2016. 

So, let’s see what the weekend brings. Nico Rosberg is on a roll of good results, and in Chinese numerology, his number 6 means to flow with luck on the road, easy and smooth all the way. Sounds portentious doesn’t it?